Tuesday, 23 May 2017

Nifty Future 23052017

It opened within previous day's range and soon broke below PDL.  The down move was very sharp and quick and did not allow the entry.  After that it consolidated below BRN for a long time. Expected a good move out of this consolidation.  The BO of range high was a good setup which did reach to LOL of PDL & PDC.  Here again the prices got rejected and gave another good down move.

Monday, 22 May 2017

Nifty Future 22052017

It opened within yesterday's range.  Once it broke below PDC and got accepted, there was a BPB short trade setup.  PDC continued to act as a strong flip the next time prices came back there and again presented a BOF setup for a short trade.

Friday, 19 May 2017

Nifty Future 19052017

Yesterday it showed the sign of volatility coming back to the Index trading after a long long time. Today it opened within yesterday's range and made a counter-trend up move which failed at the confluence of BRN and PDH.  This presented a nice BOF setup to go short.  If trailed properly, this setup generated a profit of 70 points plus.  After this big 100+ move, it was expected to take some rest and remain range-bound which it did.

How to read the price action at BRN PDH level for BOF setup:
1) Trend:  Nifty in a micro trend decline mode.  It is a very fresh trend which just started yesterday.  Since the trend is fresh, we can expect a good move in the trend direction.  So lets look for the setup which allows to trade with the trend.  BOF of BRN PDH will be the good setup.
2) Location and earlier price behavior:  Confluence of level BRN & PDH, so a good location.  Last time, yesterday, when the prices reached at the same level (BRN), it worked as a energized fencing and forced the prices to go away from the level quickly.  If history repeats itself today, we can expect the same thing at the same location today also, i.e. prices going away from the level very quickly.
3) How the prices reached there and possibility of reversal:  Prices reached there with orderly pull backs, traveling around 50 points.  This indicates critical mass probably took position in this counter-trend up move.  Also CT moves of 40-50 points normally gets exhausted at the strong S/R level.
4) Pattern:  Breakout of the level was good with good volume.  But even with this good BO, follow-up buying did not come.  This indicates prices unable to move higher.  So now if this BO fails, it will trap not only BO traders but also the critical mass.
5) Risk reward: It is more than 1:1 if the prices reach to LOD which can act as FTA.   If it breaks LOD it came go to PDL PDC to fill the gap.

This is a kind of rare setup where everything supports like trend, location, space, PA, critical mass, pattern etc.  How a trader following DP trading tactics can miss this trade!

If you put an effort to read the prices this way, you will have lot of confidence to take such setups. If you want to learn how to read the prices this way, take the help of Consistent Trader video tutorial which focuses on reading the PA and finding the good setups with ease.

Thursday, 18 May 2017

Nifty Future 18052017

It opened full gap down.  After that it traded in a narrow range.  Towards the fag end, it could break out of that narrow range and presented a BPB setup which moved well.

Wednesday, 17 May 2017

Nifty Future 17052017

It opened within previous day's range and traded in a narrow range.  Towards the fag end, there was BOF of PDH setup which did not work.

Markets are trading at all time highs but very quiet.  As a trader, it requires us to adjust to this low volatile phase of the market keeping our expectations low.

Tuesday, 16 May 2017

Nifty Future 16052017

After yesterday's very narrow range day, it broke out of that range in morning.  Looking at the momentum, it was difficult to go long on BPB of PDH/PDC.  After that it again formed a range and broke out of it in afternoon.  It then presented a nice BPB setup which moved well.

Saturday, 13 May 2017

How much money you need to day trade

The most essential requirement for day trading is "capital."  Capital is day trader's lifeline.  If you don't have money in your trading account, you will not be allowed to trade.  It is as simple as that. Also traders need to have enough funds to withstand a string of losses and have the flexibility to take a wide array of trades.

Now in order to determine the funds needed for trading, risk management must be addressed.  As a normal practice, traders normally follow a rule of risking only 1% or less of the total capital.  It means, as an example, on a capital of Rs. 1 lakh, a trader cannot risk more than Rs. 1000 per trade. To make it easy for you to understand, here is an  example.  If you buy a stock at Rs. 100 and place a stop loss at Rs. 99, risk is Rs. 1 on the trade.  If your trade position is 1000 shares, your trading risk on that trade is 1000 x 1 = Rs. 1000, i.e. 1% risk on a trading capital of Rs. 1 lakh.  This trading risk always must be 1% or less than that of the day trading account balance.  If you suffered few losses and your capital goes down to, lets say Rs. 90000, you cannot risk more than Rs. 900 per trade.  So as your capital grows, your risk taking capacity will grow and as your capital shrinks, your risk taking capacity will also go down with it.  By following this 1% rule, capital will be preserved during losing streaks, which inevitably occur.  By only risking one percent, even a ten trade losing streak keeps most of the capital intact.

Leverage and minimum capital requirement:
Day traders can typically leverage 20 to 40 times on their capital.  If there is Rs. 25000 in the trading account, a trader can take a position in Nifty Future which current contract size is around Rs. 7 lakhs, giving a leverage of 28 times.  Even when leverage is used, the one percent risk rule is always applied to actual account balance (Rs.25000 in this case).  In that case. only Rs. 250 risk per trade for Nifty Future is allowed, which is not possible.  Minimum risk of trading Nifty Future comes to around 12 points or Rs.900. So for every Nifty Future trade where the risk is around 12 points, the minimum capital requirement will be Rs. 90000 to Rs. 1 lakh.  In other works, to trade 1 lot of Nifty Future, a trader needs to keep always around Rs. 1 lakh (least minimum) in the trading account, and not just Rs. 25000.

Same way to trade in 1 lot of stock futures, I keep the trading capital around Rs. 3 lakhs.  This amount is 3 times more than the amount required for trading in Nifty Future and this is because the risk is more in trading stocks. I take a risk of 0.5% of the stock price for my trading in stocks.  As an example, if I want to take a position in a stock which quotes at Rs. 300 which lot size is 2000 shares, I will keep a stop loss at Rs. 298.50 (0.5% of 300 = 1.50).  So this way my total risk for that trade will come to Rs. 3000 (1.50 x 2000).  In other words, 1% of my total trading capital of Rs. 3 lakhs.

If you have Rs. 25000 as a trading capital and you want to trade in cash stocks, you can do that.  You can take each trade worth Rs. 50000 and still follow a 1% of risk rule.

Proper utilization of trading capital:
We do not need to keep all the required capital in cash with our broker.  We always can take some margin on our investments in stocks, mutual funds, ETFs etc.  Lets say you decided to trade in only Nifty Future and for that you require Rs. 1 lakh.  You have also some stocks and ETFs worth Rs. 50000 in your demat.  In that case, you can pledge these stocks and ETFs to your broker and get a margin of around Rs. 40000.  Now you need Rs. 60000 only in cash.  Out of this Rs. 60K, keep around Rs. 20K with your broker and rest amount of Rs. 40K in a bank FD and earn an interest on it. You stocks will also earn some dividends for you. This way you will be able to properly utilize the trading funds, making your idle funds to earn some money for you.

Lastly, again as another risk measurement, if somehow you exhaust this Rs. 20K very quickly in your trading account, you need to stop trading immediately.  You should not re-fund your account.  Take a break from trading and think about the reasons for your losses and work on them first.

If you are facing difficulty in your trading and not able to manage the losses, you can join me to copy my trades in stocks and learn how to follow a strict discipline and benefit from it.  I have also updated my stock future trading performance for the current month.  Click here to view it.