Thursday, 29 September 2016

Nifty Future 29092016

Today if you were aware of how to trade the news flow then only the day trading was possible.  News play a very important role in moving the markets and we cannot ignore it.  It creates the volatility and hence the profit potential for us as a day trader.  We need to know how to trade the news.  I have already discussed how to trade the news flow in my Video Tutorial and I hope the subscribers of the same would have benefited from the same. They could have covered the cost of tutorial today itself by trading only 1 lot of Nifty.

The important thing to notice here is the market reaction to the news flow which comes as a surprise or shock and that too especially during market hours. Any sizable pullback of 50 to 75 points during such news flow day is normally going to be used to create fresh positions by the traders.

I have marked the setup keeping in mind this sizable pullback.  Also that level was acting as a tough resistance and did not allow the prices to go further up.

If you could not trade with the news flow today wondering what is happening, I am sure next time if the same kind of news hit to the markets, you will find the setup like this to trade.

Wednesday, 28 September 2016

Nifty Future 28092016

It opened within previous day's range and started trading higher.  There were three possible setups as marked on the chart.  First one was BPB of PDC.  Second was direct BO of the range and third was the reversal trade, BOF of PDH.

I also marked the ranges that played out during the day.  Notice how the prices traveled from one range to another.

Once you are aware of the ranges and know what the prices are doing, it will become lot more easier to trade with the system. 

Tuesday, 27 September 2016

Nifty Future 27092016

After yesterday's trend day, expected a rangebound move and hence when the prices came to Range High, shorted immediately without any confirmation.  There was also a direct BO setup in the afternoon just above PDL which moved well.

Monday, 26 September 2016

Nifty Future 26092016

As discussed on last post prices were showing weakness to go higher and today they confirmed it by breaking below PDL and trading at lower levels throughout the day.

I also marked S/R levels on chart yesterday and this is how one can trade those levels on Nifty Future.  Here are the Nifty spot and future charts.

Here this is how one should try to read the prices.  "On Big Picture, weakness in bulls.  Opens full gap down - indicating weakness.  Takes support at NF BRN but fails to break above morning high indicating again indicating weakness. After trading in a narrow range breaks down below NF BRN and trades below BRN, which confirms the weakness.  After that it breaks the support level in Spot and trades below the support." So here is the opportunity and it is time to take the trade as BPB.

Always try to read the price action and be in sync with whatever you are able to read from the prices. You will most often get at least one good setup to trade during the day.

Sunday, 25 September 2016

Nifty Next Week

Looking at the price action, it seems like there is weakness in the bulls for Nifty because in last two weeks, it gave full gap ups twice but soon prices started trading at lower levels instead of going higher.  Also looking at the daily, there may have been a lower high made.

So next week since there is no sign of strength in bulls, prices may remain range bound and may test supports more often than resistances.  All probable resistances and supports have been marked on the chart.

As a range trader, to my advantage, all the established supports and resistances will offer good trading opportunities.  If support holds, look to buy and if resistance holds, look to sell.  If the level gets broken successfully, look to trade in the direction of break out.

If you like this post, please share it on social media as much as possible for you.

Saturday, 24 September 2016

Is Reliance Ready for Big Move?

Reliance Industries is the stock which has done nothing for the investors over the last 6 to 8 years, but now it seems things are changing a lot when we look at the price action.  Here is the daily chart of Reliance,

As you can see on the chart, on Friday it successfully broke out above the year high (actually 2-year high) and was able to give a weekly close above it.  So prices are showing signs of increased interest from the investors and traders on the counter.

Few pointers to note price action wise which may suggest significant up move from here on,
1) It did nothing for long, long time, around 8 years and now has broken out of 2 year high.
2) Breakout has happened after the enough consolidation.
3) It belongs to a sector (Oil & Gas) which is giving a leadership for last 6 months. Oil & Gas sector is up more than 18% in last 6 months and 9% in last 3 months.
4) Volume activity is much higher in this month of September compared to last year.

So it seems the stock has done all the right things and is poised for the big move.

Friday, 23 September 2016

Two Trade Setups

This week was not that good for intraday trading but today at last it did produce good trade setups both in Nifty and Bank Nifty.

Remember, market moves many a times will frustrate you, not allow you to remain focused and ultimately you will lose hope that it is not going to do anything.  This is the time when it will do something and present to you a good trade opportunity.

In the afternoon, price action reading gave enough clues for the breakdown and that compelled me to tweet,

This is what I could read from the price action.  "Yesterday big gap up but no followup buying and prices were never able to even come close to the initial move high.  First sign of weakness in bulls. After that consolidation took place for the remaining part of yesterday and today till around 3 pm. Today also the prices kept on testing the lows instead of highs showing further signs of weakness in bulls.  So after a big move it consolidated for almost two days with the signs of weakness in bulls. Then it broke down this long consolidation and pulled back a little giving a nice BPB setup. Should I still wait OR go ahead and pull the trigger?

Saturday, 17 September 2016

Nifty Next Week

As mentioned in my last post, it gave enough clues for breakout of consolidation on Thursday and it did actually break out.

Now lets move forward and analyse the prices, so that we can benefit from it next week.

Do you remember a month long consolidation of prices last month?  If you are finding it difficult to recall, here is the chart,

As you can see, prices broke out this month long range towards the end of August 2016 and reached close to 9000 without retesting the breakout level.  Here you need to keep in mind the 8700 level.

Now lets concentrate on the latest chart and try to assess what is there for us next week,

It retested the breakout level in the beginning of last week, traded around that level for 3 days and broke out on Friday, filled up the Island, and reversed.  Now since it was a big range day on Friday, on Monday we can expect a range bound movement within it.  If due to some reason it moves out of Friday's range, then the levels to watch will be 8750 and 8850.  If it breaks down below 8750 then will test 8700 for sure.  Now if it fails to hold 8700 during the week then most likely because of the fluid we can expect quick move towards 8550.  On the other hand, successful break of 8850 can take the prices towards 8950/9000 (all levels are of Nifty spot).

I was able to do all this analysis with only price action.  I did not require any help of indicator or moving averages or other studies.  Prices are everything and they tell us everything.  We just need to develop the ability of reading them.

Thursday, 15 September 2016

Nifty Future 15092016

It remained range bound for most part of the day.  There was a direct BO setup of Range High but it tested the patience and conviction a lot.

Did you notice that for last two days in a row, it has been able to close at around highest point of day in a short term downtrend. What does that mean?  Is it a sign of weakness of sellers?

Also prices have traded in a narrow range of 60 points for past three days. So now what likely it can do?

Think about it.  Engage the other party.

Please do not ask me for the answer.  Try to find out on your own.

Wednesday, 14 September 2016

Nifty Future 14092016

There were four trade setups per system.  If you could read the Big Picture well, then only the first setup would make sense.  I read it like "after the prices reversed from strong resistance 9000, sellers were in full control.  They were able to hold on to their positions and closed around lowest points on Friday and Monday even though there was a weekend and a holiday.  Now today morning it gave bounce and this bounce should be utilized to sell to join the wining party."

Second setup was a typical BPB of PDL which did not move.

Third setup was a sort of minor Pressure Play which moved well before reversing.

Fourth setup was a BOF of HOD which would have ended as a scratch.

(All readers are requested to share the posts on social media.  It is your support only that keeps me going.)

Friday, 9 September 2016

Feeling Proud

Education plays a significant role in our lives and for our career especially the trading career it is very much required.  We need to be well equipped with all the knowledge and skills, without which successful trading is not possible.  I feel sad when I hear from the traders that they lost so much of their money while trading, and feel even more sad when they tell me they did not do anything for learning the trading.  To help all those traders, as you all may know, I have been putting efforts from my side to educate traders on day trading with Price Action through this blog and mentoring.  I share honestly whatever I know or learn from the markets with all of you in my endeavor to make this long, tough, and lone journey comfortable for you.

Now today it gives me immense pleasure and proud to share with all of you that all those efforts towards educating traders are paying off greatly. One such great example is Shashank AKA xrtrader1.  He is a trader who was the first one to show his interest in learning the trading when I announced the training program last year.  We spent more than a month together discussing each and every aspect of trading.  Now today he is able to day trade successfully.  He believed in learning, got trained, worked hard, controlled his emotions, sharpened his skills, and ultimately conquered it. Today he could score in one day which other professional traders would find difficult to score even in one month.  Click here for his today's log.

Congratulations Shashank.  You have set a great example in front of the world showing what a great role proper education plays in trading.  You now have an edge in the markets and I wish you all the success.

Wednesday, 7 September 2016

Nifty Future 07092016

Yesterday it trended the whole day without any consolidation.  Today the consolidation was expected and it did actually consolidate creating a barb wire.  Looking at the overall trend, momentum and likely consolidation, cannot we buy at the level as marked without waiting for confirmation? Think about it.

I sold the 8900PE at 81.5 with 5 points of SL and could come out with 5 points of profit at end despite no favorable price movement after the entry.

Tuesday, 6 September 2016

Nifty Future 06092016

After breaking out of a range at 8700 in end of August it just consolidated for few days only, and today again broke out of that small consolidation with full gap up.  It seemed bulls were in so much of hurry. Did not want to miss joining them and entered as BPB of PDH on break of BRN by buying 8900CE at around 100.  It turned out to be a trend day as expected giving maximum gains possible.

Are you benefiting from these wonderful moves?  Remember, when one side dominates a lot like this it will hardly allow meaningful pullbacks.  The video tutorial will help you understand the price action better and give you confidence to participate in such moves and hold on to your position.

Friday, 2 September 2016

Nifty Future 02092016

As expected and discussed in previous post, it did give an opportunity in the form of BOF of LOL, BRN/PDL which moved very well.  There were some issues with data provider in afternoon so the chart may not appear perfect.

Nifty Future 10:30AM 02092016

At this moment it seems like LOL BRN PDL is giving support, so now if good BOF comes at this location, it will be a good setup and may look to buy 8800CE.

Nifty Premarket 02092016

This is Nifty spot chart of last few weeks.  Possible range extremes that may hold the prices for next few days are marked.  It is showing a tendency to trade in 100-150 points of range and there is nothing wrong expecting the same for next few days at least.

Thursday, 1 September 2016

Nifty Future 01092016

Are you really trying to read the prices while day trading?

First please go through the mid day post to understand the price action better.

If you really try to read the price action, then you would not hesitate to short at Range High and buy at PDL. Every possible way to read the prices has been discussed in my video tutorial. I have discussed there when to avoid trading, how to read the weakness and strength of prices, how to read the volume, and when to think about taking a positional trade.  Combination of all these produced two good trade setups.